慶應総合政策 2015 I

1

I worry about the ongoing graying of the world population, it is not on the radar, but it should be―both the coming vast increase in the number of elderly people, and the rise in average age, as middle-aged and older people come to represent a greater share of humanity. For example, out of the 9 billion people expected when the Earth's population peaks in 2050, the World Health Organization expects 2 billion―more than one person in five―to suffer from dementia. Is any society ready for this?

2

At the coming mid-century, in rich nations, nearly one person in three will be more than sixty years old. But this upheaval won't be [1] (1. assigned 2. confined 3. attributed) to the developed world. The Chinese population's median age is now almost thirty-five; by 2050 it will be forty-nine. India's population of people aged sixty to eighty will be 326 percent larger in 2050 than it is now. Elderly people, now 7 percent of Brazil's population, will make up nearly a quarter of that country in 2050. Yes, a swath of poor nations in A frica and Asia - will soon [2](I. go through 2. come away with 3. make up for) population explosions and will teem with young people. But they will be [3]( 1. additions 2. analogous 3. exceptions) to a global trend. "Before 2000, young people always outnumbered old people," Rockefeller University's Joel E, Cohen wrote a few years ago. "From 2000 forward, old people will outnumber young people."

3

Awareness of this demographic shift is [4](1. partial and piecemeal 2. complete and accurate 3. insightful and lucid). Public health specialists discuss the expected huge increases in cases of "gray" diseases―chronic ailments like heart and lung problems, stroke, diabetes, and kidney failure. Economists talk about the disruptions that follow when working-age people are too few to support the retirees.  Financial types bemoan the many millions of people who could not [5](1. put off 2. lay away 3. give up) money and now face decades with no way to get the income they'll need. Governments in India and China have introduced laws to support family values in the wake of stories of old people [6](1. abandoned 2. raised 3. replaced) by their adult children. Within each discipline and profession there's some discussion of this vast disruption, but almost no one, to my knowledge, is discussing the underlying cause or trying to map out the consequences.

4

The greatest worry about this shift turns on the social safety net. Most developed and developing nations promise [7](1. least of all 2. at least 3. in the least) some security and medical care for the old. The promise depends on the pyramid structure of a 20th-century society, in which active working-age people outnumber the retirees. It's hard to see how those social security guarantees can stay in place when there are fewer young workers for more and more older dependents.

5

That's a [8](1. subscription 2. description 3. prescription) for labor shortages, falling production, and political uproar as promised pensions and health care for the elderly become impossible to pay for. And this is one reason why more and more nations are trying to increase their [9](1. exchange 2. mortality 3. fertility) rates. How else do you prevent this kind of crisis? Well, you could raise the retirement age so that workers support retirees for longer. But that's not- acceptable for a number of practical and political reasons, one of which is that in a number of countries the retirement age would have to go into the late seventies for this to work.

6

Politically, I worry about the consequences of a shift in power away from younger people to the middle-aged and the old. In [10](1. democracy 2. aristocracy 3. autocracy), there is power in numbers, and if the numbers empower older people, then 1 fear that their concerns will start to overwhelm those of younger people. This has never happened before, so we can't know exactly what its consequences are. But I [11](1. doubt 2. assume 3. trust) they're good. I think we can expect to see some intergenerational [12]( 1. support 2. collaboration 3. conflict). Even the United States, which faces less graying than other rich nations, is in the beginnings of a policy debate about pensions and medical care that pits the interests of older workers (secure pensions and medical care) against those of younger people (education, future infrastructure, opportunity).

8

In countries where graying is happening really fast: (Spain, Italy, Japan), one consequence might be an upsurge in xenophobic nationalism, for two reasons. First, there's good evidence that openness to change and new experiences [13]( 1. increases 2. declines 3. expands) with age. Research by Robert Sapolsky, a biological scientist at Stanford University, showed that the window for being willing to try new music closed, for his American subjects anyway, at thirty-five and openness to new kinds of food ended around thirty-nine. People who might respond to a nationalist message―''Let's get back to the way things were in the old days!"―will be a bigger proportion of voters.

9

Second, because of the economic trouble, nations will look for ways to boost their active workforces to support all those retirees. And here the options are (a) boost the birthrate, or (b) open doors to immigrants from all those poor, youthful nations in Africa and Asia, or (c) make a lot of robots (as they seem to be trying to do in Japan). Options (a) and (b) are obvious [14](1. counter-examples 2. triggers 3. criticisms) of xenophobic reaction ("Young women must do their duty and make more of us!" and "We have too many of these foreigners now!").

10

Finally, I worry about too much deference being given to the fears of older people. In the past twenty years, it has become respectable to talk about immortality as a realistic medical goal. 1 think that is an early [15](1. code 2. trial 3. symptom) of a graying population. Here's another: When we speak of medical care, it's often taken as a given that life must be preserved and prolonged. Inventor Ray Kurzweil has said that whenever he asks a hundred-year-old if she wants to reach a hundred and one, the answer is yes. Has he asked the hundred-year-old's children? They might give a different answer, but in a graying world the notion of natural [16](1. limits 2. prolongation 3. manipulation) of life becomes taboo.

11

Economist Richard Posner described the pre-graying dispensation this way: "In the olden days, people broke their hips and died, which was great: now they fix them." Posner grew up with the once commonsensical notion that you have your time on Earth and then you get out of the way. That's [17](l. how 2. because 3. where) younger people are here, and they need to take your place. They'll need money for something other than their parents' nurses, they'll need the jobs older people won't retire from, and they'll need to have some decades out of the shadow of their parents. Once, people who were dutiful to their elders could count on liberation. Virginia Woolf, whose father died at seventy-one, wrote twenty-five years later: "He would have been 96 today...but [18](1. mercifully '2. regrettably 3. sadly) was not. His life would have entirely ended mine. What would have happened? No writing, no books." J fear it is becoming acceptable, due to the demographic shift, to tell younger generations that their day might never come.

12

Perhaps, though, 1 should be more [19](1. assertive 2. pessimistic 3. positive). No doubt the grayer world will have its advantages. Older people, for example, consume less power and fewer products per capita. In 2010, climate scientist Brian O'Neill and his colleagues analyzed that effect: and concluded that global graying might supply as much as 29 percent of the reductions in carbon-dioxide emissions needed to [20](1, cause 2. avert 3. sustain) climate catastrophe this century. Whatever one's attitude toward graying, though, it is indisputably happening. It deserves much snore attention.

[21] Which of the following best characterizes the author's overall attitude toward the graying of the world population?

1. The author is quite optimistic about the consequences of the demographic shift.

2. The author is concerned about the serious effects of graying on various aspects of our society.

3. The author is confident that solutions will soon be found for problems arising from the demographic shift.

4. The author is convinced that there is nothing we can do to prevent the negative effects of graying on our society.

[22] Which of the following goes against the facts given in the article?

1. Graying is happening not only in the developed countries but also in the developing countries.

2. More than twenty percent of the world population is expected to suffer from dementia in 2050.

3. Brazil's population of elderly people in 2050 will be more than four times larger than it is now.

4. India's population of people aged sixty to eighty will, be more than tripled by 2050.

[23] According to the article, the social safety net becomes difficult to maintain

1. if retirees outnumber active working-age people.

2. if active working-age people outnumber retirees.

3. unless the retirement age is raised so that workers support retirees for longer.

4. unless the retirement age is lowered so that more younger people may join the workforce.

[24] In the 6lh paragraph, the author states: "their concerns will, start to overwhelm those of younger people." Which of the following would he the most unlikely example of "their concerns'"?

1. Concern for keeping what they have,

2. Concern for preserving the past as they imagine it.

3. Concern for avoiding the untried and unfamiliar.

4. Concern for developing their career path.

[25] According to the article, the policy debate about pensions-and medical cafe, in the United States can be seen as representing

1. a struggle between generations, each pursuing their own interests.

2. a concerted effort among different generations to pursue a common goal.

3. a futile effort on. the part of government to find an easy solution for a difficult problem.

4. a case in which policymakers are often trapped in the box they built.

[26] The word "xenophobic" as used in the 8th and 9th paragraphs comes from "xenophobia," which means

1. a strong feeling of dislike or fear of women.

2. a strong feeling of dislike or fear of people from other countries.

3. a strong desire to create a system in which one nation controls other nations.

4. a feeling of love for and pride in your country.

[27] Robert Sapolsky's research as mentioned in the 8th paragraph supports the idea that people

1. remain just as open-minded or closed-minded irrespective of their age.

2. can retain their open-mindedness with effort.

3. tend to become more conservative as they grow older.

4. tend to become more radical as they grow older.

[28] In the 10th paragraph, the author states: "it's often taken as a given that life must be preserved and prolonged." Which of the following best paraphrases this statement?

1. Life should be considered as a gift and therefore you need to take good care of it.

2. Life is granted by God and therefore only God has the right to end it.

3. There is a presumption that a longer life is a better life.

4. Immortality will be made possible through advances in medical technology.

[29] Which of the following would best represent Richard Posner's position in the 11^th paragraph?

1. Advancement in medical science is a blessing because we can now enjoy a long life.

2. The fact that our lifespan is limited is a blessing in disguise because younger generations will be able to take the place of older generations.

3. We should be allowed to remain in the workforce as long as possible so that we can make enough money before retirement.

4. We should respect the moral code which says that children should always be obedient to their parents, no matter what.

[30] According to the arti cle, which of the following is NOT tine about global graying?

1. In spite of all the negative aspects of global graying, it may have a positive effect on our environment.

2. It may have a negative impact on our society such as labor shortages, falling production, and political unrest.

3. Policymaking may be negatively impacted because older people's interests may be promoted at the sacrifice of those of younger people.

4. We have a clear understanding of the causes and consequences of global graying, and we have policies in place to address them.